Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1971
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 22:13:46

ACUS11 KWNS 122213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122213=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...south-central GA...into portions of southeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122213Z - 130015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may pose an isolated risk for damaging
gusts through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, scattered thunderstorms across
parts of central GA and eastern AL have shown occasional
intensification and the potential for isolated damaging gusts.
Ongoing within a strongly unstable (3000-4000 J/kg), but weakly
sheared environment, storms are excepted to remain predominately
multi-cellular. With less than 20 kt of deep-layer shear evident on
the FFC VAD, storm organization potential does not appear high.
Upscale growth doesn't appear overly likely either, given the weak
background and surface flow. Thus, the severe wind risk should be
tied to occasional downdraft pulses within the strongest of the
ongoing multi-cell clusters. Driven by the buoyancy, isolated
damaging gusts will remain possible through this evening as storm
slowly propagate south by southeast. The severe risk should
gradually diminish after sunset with the onset of nocturnal
stabilization.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!570CJimnsSlxEFzze2CcHF4mCNvfIhHDAB2yhm80yjTczLFT-tAVRehBIizjXIQ29AQxEvbHu=
9MIq1A7mqTQXw1GcAc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   33808304 33888274 33808261 33328225 32928228 32608233
            32278252 31968279 31748305 31518348 30978444 30828505
            30878515 30938543 31158561 31828570 32318558 32958480
            33188436 33388404 33638350 33808304=20


=3D =3D =3D
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