Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 15:56:04 AWUS01 KWNH 121555 FFGMPD MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121915- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1154 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Southeast KS into Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 121553Z - 121915Z SUMMARY...Locally backbuilding and repeating convective cell activity, with some of this falling on areas that saw heavy rain earlier, may see some additional flash flooding concerns over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest radar and satellite imagery shows a fairly small-scale axis of backbuilding and repeating convection over areas of southeast KS, with the convection beginning to edge back into areas of southwest MO. The convection is being driven by persistent larger scale warm air advection around the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern Plains, with smaller scale vort energy rounding the top of the ridge and interacting with sufficient levels of instability for convection to regenerate and locally backbuild and repeat over the same area. Some of this convection that is over southeast KS is already impacting areas that saw heavy rain earlier this morning, and adjacent areas of southwest MO have been seeing some locally heavy rains as well may tend to see some additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours. GOES-IR satellite imagery does show convective tops still occasionally cooling and suggestive of persistent updraft activity as these cells drop down to the east-southeast. Rainfall rates with the additional cells over the next few hours should continue to reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour, and some additional spotty totals may reach upwards of 3+ inches where the cells repeat over the same area. Given the locally wet antecedent conditions, additional concerns will exist for some flash flooding in the short-term. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-fctTeiTGs0t-_N4Spakt9cMRq3ohW56Re3ZHY9PaJJi3gZBWhH_L-vKZ_q6Ln51N8BU= K1nQeWARrLr0Ww0TjU58sQA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37899534 37699409 37059283 36529317 36919486=20 37129654 37729653=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .