Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1964
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 15:37:41

ACUS11 KWNS 121537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121537=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...northern Indiana into much of northwest
Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 121537Z - 121800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop along the cold front over the
next several hours. Supercells will be capable of damaging hail, and
a few tornadoes from northeast Ohio into Pennsylvania and southern
New York. Damaging winds may also develop with time.

DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving southward into northern IN and
toward northwest OH, and visible satellite shows a zone of heating
ahead of the front. Southwest winds will continue to aid moisture
advection, beneath cool midlevel temperatures. The result should be
storms increasing in coverage along the front by early to mid
afternoon, rapidly becoming severe and producing large hail and
damaging gusts. Wind profiles will favor supercell storm mode, but
bowing segments may develop with time. Low-level shear will likely
be sufficient for a few tornadoes across the region, as 0-1 km SRH
remains around 100 m2/s2. Near Lake Erie, locally enhanced shear is
possible which may aid storms moving roughly parallel to the lake
shore, but also with a slight component to the right.

Notably, an expansive CU field has developed over northeast OH,
western PA and into western NY, with billowing clouds within the
boundary layer. This is the zone of best supercell tornado potential
with favorable low-level shear, good low-level CAPE, favorable
hodographs for supercells and developing low-level vorticity along
the boundaries.

...Jewell/Smith.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_W4-PkuFeyUGppDsAoJ5ezGeMgw7et1haqAx0flSf-8n6YAx2-CyHh-Ds2idOf7tFwkWVvLDH=
effbMC-ClZoEqo1vRU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41688330 41768270 42118056 42427986 42727907 42617882
            42107866 41497866 41107885 40807924 40607962 40438007
            40068141 39968242 39898326 40058454 40318546 40728569
            41078581 41458529 41688330=20


=3D =3D =3D
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