Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 15:16:36

AWUS01 KWNH 121516
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-121914-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0909
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Western KY through Northwest/Central
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121514Z - 121914Z

SUMMARY...A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms with
relatively slow cell-motions and some training character will pose
concerns for some flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a rather concentrated
but intense cluster of showers and thunderstorms dropping
east-southeast across areas of western KY and northwest TN as a
small-scale MCV advances across the region and interacts with a
moderate to strongly unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and with PWs running upwards of 1.8 to
1.9 inches.

There is a belt of relatively stronger effective bulk shear
cutting down to the southeast across the region is close proximity
to this fairly organized convective cluster, with 30 to 40+ kts of
shear noted, and this coupled with increasing downstream
instability from stronger solar insolation/boundary layer heating
suggests that this convective cluster may have some potential to
grow a bit further in organization and intensity.

GOES-16 IR satellite imagery has been showing some expansion of
cooling convective tops, and so this activity should certainly
continue at least over the next few hours despite the fact that
the 12Z HREF guidance has a very poor handle of this activity.

Given the radar and satellite trends, and the thermodynamic
environment that is in place, expect rainfall rates to locally
approach 2.5 inches/hour. Some of the cells are rather slow-moving
and there are some localized training cell activity that may
foster some rather heavy totals. Some storm total amounts of 3 to
4 inches, with isolated heavier amounts will be possible going
through the early afternoon hours. Some flash flooding will be
possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_2w1jrvXinMsGGJf_thDuXZZwes0CQnU6KpZTVuUFBjBxZ8FF3774_lkyS8wabgaxKyf=
NZ-riUJsL_7_m0imRcmYUJM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36848852 36738689 36308580 35708598 35698726=20
            35968828 36428871=20

=3D =3D =3D
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