Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 08:46:38

ACUS48 KWNS 120846
SWOD48
SPC AC 120844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will extend from southern Ontario southwestward into the Mid-South
early D4/Tuesday morning. Surface low associated with this wave will
likely be centered over the Lower Great Lakes, with an attendant
front extending southwestward from this low into the central
Carolinas. Some severe thunderstorms appear possible as the
shortwave and related front move eastward/northeastward, but the
best buoyancy will be displaced south of the strongest ascent, which
could limit severe-storm coverage. There are some questions
regarding frontal timing as well. These factors preclude introducing
an area with this outlook.

The progression of a strong shortwave trough from the northern
Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, OH Valley, and
into the Northeast looks increasingly likely from D5/Wednesday
through D7/Friday. Some severe appears probable as the shortwave
progresses eastward, particularly on D5/Wednesday across the Upper
Midwest where mid 60s dewpoints will contribute to moderate
buoyancy. Predictability issues become problematic after
D5/Wednesday, with guidance differing on the strength/depth and
speed of the shortwave.

...Mosier.. 08/12/2023

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