Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 07:31:26 AWUS01 KWNH 120731 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-121300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0908 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...Southwest MO...Northwest to North-central AR...Northeast OK...South-central to Southeast KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120730Z - 121300Z SUMMARY...Strong efficient elevated thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr has potential for upscale growth and training potential the early morning hours. Flash flooding is considered possible through 13z. DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3 EIR loop denotes scattered thunderstorms across southern KS into SW MO/NE OK are starting to break out with increase in coverage and cooling tops, with the strongest cluster in SE KS cooling below -70C generally in a weakly ridged arc axis. This arc is a result of best low level speed and right exit convergence of the LLJ out of OK, this also aligns with enhanced sfc to 850 moisture with CIRA LPW of .9-1" in that layer. The higher Theta-E air remains moderately unstable with 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE noted within the axis as well. The speed convergence will also enhance moisture flux into the updrafts to allow for 2-2.5"/hr rates. Through the late morning, further veering of the LLJ, should reduce potential for back-builing/redevelopment across Central KS, but keep the threat across SE KS more likely.=20 GOES-E WV denotes that fairly zonal flow in the mid-levels/ steering should help to direct cell motions to the ESE. This should allow for some training potential as cells further develop, especially with upstream redevelopment probable through 12z. While propagation may allow for some deflection to the south, this should be generally convergent with upstream cells to allow for some cell mergers or short-term training even if the deflection is greater than anticipated. As a result spots of 2-4" are possible particularly over SE KS into SW MO, but may filter southward into NW AR with time as well.=20 Hydrologically, the grounds have been anomalously wet based on 7day AHPS anomalies of 200-400% across the area of concern. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture percentage is also above average but only further east across southwest to south-central MO and Northern AR (50%+) with much of southern and southeast KS generally below 20%. This makes a bit of crossed signals for infiltration potential; however, rates are likely to be intense enough that there should be ample run-off resulting in possible flash flooding conditions over the next few hours.=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5bQo4NONmG1CBnPzhcKhslUAqcL22CsJ87sHKxF7-s-uUmBbTe6t0IErL4YldZ6bGh4L= Ol9rDBpoStdHgV0X6yIFBPA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38049673 38009555 37869412 37429278 36909212=20 36039187 35579283 36149434 36799588 37309750=20 37909746=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .