Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1959
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 04:10:07

ACUS11 KWNS 120410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120409=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-120615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...northern and central Missouri into portions of west
central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

Valid 120409Z - 120615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
continues.

SUMMARY...A consolidating cluster of storms may gradually organize
into and through the 1-3 AM CDT time frame, with a more substantive
risk for damaging wind gusts eventually developing and spreading
southeastward toward the Interstate 70 corridor overnight.  Trends
will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional
severe weather watch to the southeast of WW 631.

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have evolved north through
northwest of the Chillicothe MO vicinity, with a general increase in
thunderstorm development ongoing into the Missouri/Iowa border
vicinity.  A gradual consolidation of this activity seems probable
during the next few hours, aided by lift associated with weak to
modest warm advection, and inflow of seasonably moist air still
characterized by large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.  Beneath 30-50
kt west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, an increasingly organized
cluster of storms may gradually evolve, with steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates contributing to the development
of a strengthening surface cold pool.  Once this occurs, a more
prominent risk for strong to severe surface gusts probably will
eventually evolve, with a tendency to surge south-southeastward
toward the Interstate 70 corridor.

...Kerr.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9-HjTnEhnEOW7m20g3yMtWGCLpXgbwFWdKIcMR8pWLCN-grFQk21_JQUktYfA73iSB57CQ5ry=
u0iaMxW58HnY9cXeTs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40169263 40339138 39059029 38929241 40149411 40169263=20


=3D =3D =3D
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