Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1958
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 02:08:36

ACUS11 KWNS 120208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120208=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-120345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...parts of northern IA...and far southwest WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...628...630...

Valid 120208Z - 120345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627, 628,
630 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging winds may persist for a few
more hours this evening as storms gradually weaken. It is unclear if
storms will continue to pose a severe risk beyond 03z.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms ongoing across
portions of northern IA and southwest WI, have shown a gradual
downtrend in intensity of the last 60-90 minutes. This downtrend may
continue  with the onset of nocturnal stabilization and large-scale
ascent shifting to the east. Despite this, moderate instability and
40-50 kt of effective shear are sufficient for storm organization
into supercells. Low-level warm advection tied to a slight increase
in 850 mb flow may also support additional elevated storm
development into portions of northeastern IA over the next few
hours. With the CAPE/shear space favorable for storm organization, a
few of the stronger storms may persist beyond 03z with a risk for
damaging gusts and hail. However, given the gradual downtrend
observed, confidence in the longevity of the severe risk is very low
with a wide range of possibilities evident in short-term
deterministic guidance.

...Lyons.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8EaAEICf5k6jsiO8axqRlrLab02qyODHnOgVsoXQ9tJpFFTO8e60m7NMMj7uTClY1CFW7MSFd=
jJWILBZ_i9zEmRZIOw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43239463 43439329 43439241 43259121 43049081 42819064
            42619064 42489070 42399086 42219137 42129196 42159258
            42239336 42349412 42459487 42559531 42719561 43149539
            43239463=20


=3D =3D =3D
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