Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1957
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 01:04:05

ACUS11 KWNS 120104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120103=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-120200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of western and central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629...

Valid 120103Z - 120200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 629
continues.

SUMMARY...High-based storms capable of damaging downbursts remain
possible this evening. WW629 may need to be expanded eastward.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, several measured reports of severe
wind have been noted with the high-based convection across western
OK. A more organized cluster has recently evolved over Custer and
southern Dewey counties, with a max gust of 77 mph measured at
Butler. Hi-res forecast guidance and recent convective trends
suggests this cluster of storms should continue northeastward this
evening with a risk for damaging down burst winds of 60-80 mph.

Less organized convection will also remain capable of isolated
severe gusts mainly across portions of southwest OK this evening.
Some model guidance suggests another cluster of storms may evolve
and track eastward towards I-35 this evening. However, the
relatively cooler air mass farther east may limit the potential for
damaging gusts with the loss of diurnal heating.

...Lyons.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6WU4REPWG9SO2FDBIRvwppN5_qOxyl7FdLT9iJySW21AYugBmPVXl467Q5sKT6SEDzg-cBBL0=
9be-lyzLRaWS6JlutE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   35219975 36009944 36269892 36309812 36269755 36169727
            35979720 35769725 35639736 35499752 35119788 34449882
            34399924 34409946 34459968 34629982 35219975=20


=3D =3D =3D
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