Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 00:51:36 ACUS01 KWNS 120051 SWODY1 SPC AC 120049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and hail remain likely from northeast Kansas into northern Missouri, and from southeast Minnesota across much of Wisconsin. ....Southeast MN and northeast IA across much of WI and Lower MI... Scattered storms currently stretch from northern IA into central WI, with supercells over southern areas producing large hail. The 00Z sounding from DVN shows strong flow aloft elongating the hodograph and favoring cellular activity. Meanwhile, a bowing segment is moving across WI, with plenty of moisture and instability downstream. As such, a severe hail and wind risk is forecast to persist this evening. For more information see MCD 1954 and 1956. ....Northeast KS into MO and western IL... Extremely unstable conditions for this time of year are in place from KS into IL, with 00Z soundings showing MLCAPE largely over 3500 J/kg with relatively steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft remains favorable as well to sustain both supercells capable of damaging hail and wind. An area of low-level convergence remains over the region, and a gradually increasing low-level jet may aid lift and help initiate storms later this evening. As such, the ENH has been left intact. For more information see MCD 1953. ....Parts of OK... Scattered storms have formed within the very hot air mass over western OK, with isolated severe winds measured. The 00Z OUN sounding shows a deep mixed layer, with little CIN. Given the strongly unstable air mass in place, outflows should continue to favor new development at last for a few hours as storms propagate east/northeastward. In addition, an isolated cell exists over northeast OK, but this activity is expected to remain isolated. However, large hail or locally damaging gusts could occur in the short term. For more information see MCD 1955. ...Jewell.. 08/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .