Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1956
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 12 2023 00:17:35

ACUS11 KWNS 120017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120016=20
MIZ000-120145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120016Z - 120145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue for a couple
more hours with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado.
Convective trends will be monitored for a weather watch, but
uncertainty remains high.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, storms have slowly intensified near
a frontal zone in the wake of previous convection. The air mass has
slowly modified but remains partially capped with 500-1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE now evident on SPC mesoanalysis and the 00z DTX sounding.
Mid-level flow has also increased slightly over the last hour with
deep-layer shear now reaching 30-35 kt. Sufficient buoyancy and
vertical shear exist to support a brief uptick in severe risk across
parts of eastern lower MI. Semi-discrete mode may support transient
supercells with occasional low-level rotation. The primary hazard
should remain damaging wind gusts, but backed low-level winds may
support a risk for a brief tornado with the more organized storms.
Convection will gradually encounter a more hostile air mass farther
east where temperatures are cooler and low-level inhibition is
higher. The loss of diurnal heating also suggests a gradual
downtrend in intensity is likely soon. Conditions will be monitored,
but confidence in the longevity of the severe risk is low.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5UbzWMrFQjMyOLel4Fq4xt9hc_JNj76ZjQCd-H37MxseGxIJcGK8jfPeUE7FVLb-JvvJJLIF1=
ZaPcS0S5uxEXjUyeTo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42088461 43008413 43418378 43448329 43268271 42948249
            42678255 42438273 42148299 41938315 41828336 41758363
            41788416 41838459 42088461=20


=3D =3D =3D
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