Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1954
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 23:43:04

ACUS11 KWNS 112342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112342=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern MN...northern IA and western
WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...628...

Valid 112342Z - 120045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627, 628
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms will continue to pose a risk for
hail and damaging gusts this evening. A downstream watch is likely
needed east of WW627.

DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several severe storms, including a few
supercells, were ongoing across portions of southern MN and
west-central WI. The environment ahead of these storms remains
moderately unstable and strongly sheared with area VADs showing
45-50 kt of effective shear. This should favor continued maintenance
of strong updrafts with a mixed mode of supercells and line
segments. Given recent reports of significant hail and several
measured severe gusts, storms will remain capable of large to very
large hail and damaging gusts. Additional upscale growth into a more
linear arrangement will remain possible this evening as storms track
into northern IA and western/southwestern WI. The primary risk may
shift more towards damaging gusts with time. With storms nearing the
eastern edge of WW627 within the next hour, a new watch will likely
be needed into WI.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9FXM-Uiqtz2HIQOp5xen43G_qO-610Wgc7efP4Iu25DtftRAGWilekVf5z0_EQ17ExHQpQjbI=
uolzpbkaGIKDTkoiMw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42729134 42919462 43039504 43249518 43449516 43679501
            43929463 44859279 45379068 45359008 44628821 44238789
            43858777 42928788 42638799 42538832 42568853 42689056
            42729134=20


=3D =3D =3D
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