Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1953
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 22:53:35

ACUS11 KWNS 112253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112253=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Missouri
and adjacent portions of northeastern Kansas...southeastern
Nebraska...southwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

Valid 112253Z - 120100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
continues.

SUMMARY...A few rapidly developing and intensifying storms appear
probable during the 7-9 PM CDT time frame, with a few posing a risk
for large hail and at least some potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...A moist boundary layer characterized by large
mixed-layer CAPE of 4000+ J/kg remains largely capped by relatively
warm, dry air in lower/mid-levels, along a zone of stronger
differential surface heating extending roughly north of Beatrice NE
into the Sedalia MO vicinity.  East of a weak surface low, some
east-northeastward progression of this boundary is possible into
early evening, as broad mid-level troughing digs across the
international border into the upper Midwest.=20=20

Near the southern periphery of this regime, models suggest a high
level jet progressing around the northern periphery of a subtropical
high centered over southeast Texas will contribute to a focused area
of strengthening high-level divergence by early evening.  Coupled
with weak to modest low-level warm advection, the latest Rapid
Refresh, NAM, and ECMWF all indicate an area of strengthening
lower/mid tropospheric vertical motion across northwestern Missouri,
centered north/northwest of St. Joseph through areas north of
Chillicothe during the 00-02Z time frame.  As this occurs, rapid
thunderstorm initiation and intensification still seems probable, in
an environment with sufficient shear to support supercells
initially.  Large hail is expected to be the primary severe threat
initially, though a tornado or two appears possible.

...Kerr.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!777hv0pZfHMeKKuangjT82cXLn6xTorGBx1r8KQKrRrVsShvxynM9ORJH2jAwqFuiWgysYv_Q=
KoB4Cs2-C8VGSvlAMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41069547 40489266 39529308 39489409 40089628 41069547=20


=3D =3D =3D
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