Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 22:51:33

ACUS11 KWNS 112251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112251=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-112345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1952
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 112251Z - 112345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storms with potential for damaging wind gusts
will continue this evening. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed scattered high-based storms erupting near a thermally induced
surface low across western OK. Extreme heat, with temperatures in
excess of 110 F is supporting very steep low and mid-level lapse
rates. As storms continue to develop and shift eastward within 30 kt
mid-level flow they will encounter higher PWATS and stronger
buoyancy. Damaging down burst winds are likely given the deep
inverted-v profiles and high DCAPE. A new severe thunderstorm watch
will be issued shortly.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8c4FjkhH0WyoLIcnajotEC6p_SdQtAjX7E7eisM50Csu2Nu5K1tNepgVSshtY29ADGDBAnQ8T=
ZVt2zZwwzB_rx3i5LU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34399956 34560004 34780028 35400028 35780021 36079980
            36209940 36229862 35849802 35419766 34929765 34629783
            34379825 34339886 34339926 34399956=20


=3D =3D =3D
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