Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 20:32:34

ACUS11 KWNS 112032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112031=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...southeast Nebraska...northeast Kansas into far
southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

Valid 112031Z - 112200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms will continue southeastward into
northwest MO the next few hours. Isolated large hail and strong
gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent ACARS soundings over the Kansas City vicinity
indicated quite a bit of dry air above the moist near-surface
boundary-layer. Despite MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg and effective
shear greater than 35-40 kt across the area, this may explain the
recent weakening trend of convection, especially given weak ascent
through this drier layer. Nevertheless, MLCINH has decreased across
much of the area and low-level convergence will persist. Additional
storms may develop with time behind ongoing convection, but this is
unclear. An isolated large to very large hail risk will continue
with any more intense cells that are able to develop and/or be
maintained with southeast extent across northwest MO.

...Leitman.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4BDBosLDrBugiMaYD8lPvLcRt6UPiXGL_xCNRbtQd8PnVEEm77qjxsqB2HX84wU1NJ6QoNZ7G=
CV0BqeXrUIRSSt4mp0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40989485 40759372 40069348 39319392 38899445 38839526
            38989625 39299686 40229673 40629660 41039620 40989485=20


=3D =3D =3D
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