Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1947
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 19:15:31

ACUS11 KWNS 111915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111914=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1947
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...central/southern Lower MI into far northeast
IN/northwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111914Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the
next couple of hours. An isolated severe thunderstorm may develop by
late afternoon and the area is being monitored for possible watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A warm front, currently draped northwest to southeast
across central/southern Lower MI will continue to slowly lift north
through the afternoon. Cloud cover through early afternoon has muted
surface heating, with temperatures generally in the mid/upper 70s F.
However, dewpoints within the warm sector to the south of the front
have climbed into the upper 60s to near 70 F. This is contributing
to MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Low-level convergence and
some large-scale support from a passing shortwave impulse should
support increasing thunderstorm development over the next couple of
hours. Vertically veering wind profiles and 30-40 kt midlevel
southwesterlies are contributing to effective shear magnitudes up to
35 kt. This environment should support isolated organized storms
capable of damaging gusts. Midlevel lapse rate will remain modest,
but elongated hodographs suggest marginal hail also may occur on a
sporadic basis. Timing and coverage of severe storms remains
somewhat uncertain, and this area is being monitored for a possible
severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon.

...Leitman/Smith.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!600rxEgrfcQdwqTztRdbPlZ7U4pKdeQudQ7iwOLNVygRtQiIoO7VJnZdjhgcxRhLdw0WHUJxn=
Fbz5P3z0svKzuFaF2g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43368593 43668525 43378397 42978308 42318242 41378221
            41068271 41178371 41748588 42258601 43148592 43368593=20


=3D =3D =3D
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