Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1946 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 18:57:02 ACUS11 KWNS 111856 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111856=20 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-112100- Mesoscale Discussion 1946 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern MN and western WI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20 Valid 111856Z - 112100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon across central/eastern MN and western WI. Severe gusts and large hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...An upper-level jet streak, characterized by 90-kt+ westerly flow at 300 mb, is currently rotating through a shortwave trough over the Dakotas and into western MN. Temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid-/upper-60s currently reside ahead of the shortwave in central/eastern MN. Large-scale lift ahead of the jet streak has supported gradual updraft intensification over the last couple of hours, with deeper development now observed in central MN. Continued development is expected to the south of ongoing storms, with severe hazards overspreading the delineated area through the afternoon and evening. Mesoanalysis suggests that some inhibition may remain in central/eastern MN, but RAP/NAM soundings and current satellite trends suggest any inhibition is rapidly dwindling. This should lead to a quick increase in convective coverage in the next few hours. This is supported by recent CAM guidance suggesting additional development from central MN south/southwestward to around the MN/IA border. Forecast profiles ahead of the storms feature buoyancy and kinematic profiles supportive of supercells. Straight hodographs will support early updraft splits, with both flanks subsequently offering a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The threat for large hail (up to 1-2 inches in diameter) will be greatest in the short-term with more discrete supercells, with the severe-wind threat increasing in coverage as the system grows upscale and propagates into western WI later this afternoon/evening. ...Flournoy/Smith.. 08/11/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mmLVUtpgYTxW04b2sC78pDeVznx5F53DFRRX0MI7FRKBzHbvY8eqOdwHYL98-w9jTaVQoKQF= o1ulFMhX4zYxcFflFc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 43609306 43989386 44589470 45199505 46129507 46669444 46849332 46669237 45959161 44779098 43819102 43469175 43609306=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .