Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 17:48:03 ACUS02 KWNS 111747 SWODY2 SPC AC 111746 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast, parts of the Plains region, and the Mid South/southern Appalachians on Saturday. ....Ohio Valley/Northeast... A belt of 40 to 60 kt mid-level westerlies is forecast to overspread the mid and upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday, as a short-wave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes area shifts eastward across the region. Storms are forecast to develop by afternoon as the warm-sector airmass heats/destabilizes -- over parts of New York and northeastern PA near the warm front and evolving lake-breeze boundaries, and over northwestern Ohio and Indiana along the southeastward/moving cold front. Given moderately strong flow through the lower and middle troposphere, damaging winds are expected with stronger storms as convection moves rather quickly eastward. Some increase in storm coverage should continue through the afternoon and persist into the evening. Still, it appears that overall coverage may remain sufficiently sparse so as to limit overall coverage of severe-weather occurrences. WIth that said, this area may require upgrade to 30% wind/ENH risk, as multiple rounds of scattered storm clusters may affect some areas. ....Southern High Plains vicinity... Short-wave troughing is progged to rotate northeastward across New Mexico and the central/southern High Plains region, and then east-northeastward into Kansas and northern Oklahoma, around the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. As the afternoon airmass heats/destabilizes, storms are expected to develop from southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle, which would then spread eastward across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in conjunction with an enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies accompanying the aforementioned short-wave troughing. Given a relatively deep mixed layer anticipated during the afternoon and early evening, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat, along with some hail risk. Storms may increase in coverage during the evening/overnight as a southwesterly low-level jet develops. Convection may spread eastward into Missouri late, though likely with diminishing severe risk due to diurnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ....Mid South/southern Appalachians... An MCS is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, moving eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity. As the downstream airmass destabilizes through the day, storms will likely be maintained, with some reintensification possible -- aided by presence of increasing mid-level west-northwesterly flow with northward extent. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms/storm clusters as convection moves across the Mid South/Tennessee Valley region, with some hints that a southeastward advance into/across the southern Appalachians may occur. As such, have expanded MRGL risk into northern parts of Alabama/Georgia, and into the western Carolinas/western Virginia, to cover any local/isolated severe risk. ....South Dakota/Nebraska area... Weak height falls associated with a short-wave trough advancing southeastward from the Canadian Rockies, in conjunction with low-level warm advection, should result in isolated afternoon storm development as ample diurnal destabilization occurs. Given sufficient shear expected over the area, a couple of the strongest storms will likely become capable of producing hail and a damaging gust or two. As a southerly low-level jet evolves through the evening, a continuation of isolated storms is expected, with some increase in coverage possible. Local severe risk may persist into the overnight hours with the strongest storms. ...Goss.. 08/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .