Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1945
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 17:42:32

ACUS11 KWNS 111742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111742=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-111945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1945
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Areas affected...the ArkLaMiss region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111742Z - 111945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strengthening thunderstorms are possible through
mid-afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. Gusty winds and hail are
the primary threats. These hazards should remain localized, and a
watch is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to percolate across southern AR
in a steadily destabilizing environment. Current mesoanalysis
depicts some remaining inhibition across the area; however,
synthesizing RAP forecast soundings with current surface
observations suggest that any inhibition is quickly eroding. This is
consistent with recent satellite trends depicting an expanding Cu
field amidst a few deeper, more persistent updrafts. The boundary
layer in the ArkLaMiss region is currently warmer and moister than
depicted in short-term forecast profiles, suggesting that continued
convective development is possible. However, a lack of stronger
upper-level support will limit convective intensification to some
degree. This support would likely stem from the mid-level wave
moving through TN, but any associated upper-level divergence is
likely rather small. Furthermore, despite rather warm and moist
surface conditions, the boundary layer appears relatively dry above
the surface. Associated entrainment should limit realized buoyancy.
Due to these factors, overall confidence in a severe threat is low
and watch issuance appears unlikely. If a localized threat
materializes, isolated wind gusts and hail would be the main risks.

...Flournoy/Smith.. 08/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!87N6VWZfOsVCbOVejkQXNDR0vfGSBZY_K7jpn0og4TIyDwI2RTwgA4qj7sUaYWYrUbB61a2Cc=
bJvGhpBt9HDNv7H9pw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32539045 32779183 33229307 33669350 34409326 34779240
            34699131 34349032 33728985 33048982 32858998 32539045=20


=3D =3D =3D
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