Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 08:43:27

ACUS48 KWNS 110843
SWOD48
SPC AC 110841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough and accompanying strong mid-level flow are
forecast to progress eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and
into the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley on D4/Monday. An associated
surface low is expected to further occlude as it moves eastward
across the Upper Great Lakes and an attendant cold front moves
across the OH Valley.

A linear convective system may ongoing early D4/Monday, likely in
the southern OH/KY vicinity well ahead of the cold front. There is
uncertainty regarding how organized/intense this line will be, but
some severe potential is possible. Additional storm development
appears probable in the wake of this leading MCS as the front moves
into the OH Valley. Environmental conditions support some severe
potential with these afternoon/evening storms.

Thunderstorms are possible along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on
D5/Tuesday. The strong mid-level flow associated with the shortwave
will contribute to some severe potential. However, uncertainty
regarding the timing of the shortwave and associated front
precluding delineating any areas with this outlook.

Guidance continues to show the potential for another strong
shortwave trough across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during
the middle of the week. However, model consistency is poor, limiting
forecast confidence.

...Mosier.. 08/11/2023

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