Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 11 2023 07:34:57 ACUS03 KWNS 110734 SWODY3 SPC AC 110733 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from eastern portions of the central Plains into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress southeastward across the northern and central Plains on Sunday, ending the period extended from central MN southeastward into north-central KS. An associated surface low will likely begin the period over central SD before moving eastward into MN while occluding. As this low moves eastward, an attendant cold front will sweep southeastward across the central Plains. By 00Z this front is expected to extend from the low over west-central MN southward to a triple point near the IA/NE/MO border intersection and then southwestward across KS into the OK Panhandle. ....Central Plains into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys.. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Sunday morning near the primary surface low, and in the vicinity of a warm front extending from north-central KS across central MO. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, so some strong to severe storms are possible with this early activity. This early morning activity will likely diminish as the low-level jet weakens. The previously mentioned warm front stretching from KS across central MO will move northward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Low 70s dewpoints are likely within the warm sector south of this warm front, contributing to a strongly unstable airmass by the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some additional intensification/organization of these storms as they reach this area of strong buoyancy. Deep-layer vertical shear will be increasing across the region as well, and the development of a organized linear MCS appears possible. This MCS would then likely progress eastward into the Lower OH Valley. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe threat along the front for the later morning into the early afternoon. During the late afternoon and early evening, there will be an increasing potential for discrete warm-sector supercells capable of all severe hazards. Thereafter, interaction between the approaching front and any discrete storms should trend towards a linear mode withe damaging gusts again becoming the primary risk. Additionally, higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. However, uncertainty regarding the frontal timing, as well as location of the warm front and associated destabilization, currently precludes the forecast confidence needed for higher probabilities. ...Mosier.. 08/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .