Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1936
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 21:37:54

ACUS11 KWNS 102137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102137=20
NCZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102137Z - 102300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, including a few supercells, are
possible this evening. Damaging gusts, isolated hail and a couple of
tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms. A weather watch is
possible, but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
showed renewed convective development ongoing across parts of
southeastern and eastern North Carolina. Located ahead of a weak
cold front/ wind shift, incipient storms are expected to continue to
intensify through this evening. Very moist surface conditions (
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F) were supporting 2000-2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. Area VADs show
enhanced  mid-level flow around 50 kt was aiding in sufficient
deep-layer shear for supercells and or short bowing segments, with a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. While low-level
winds are slightly veered, 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 may support a
few stronger low-level mesocyclones and a risk for a couple of
tornadoes this evening. Storm coverage remains the primary
uncertainty in the wake of previous convection. Confidence in a more
sustained severe risk is greatest farther south where the air mass
has better recovered. However, conditions are being monitored for a
possible weather watch over much of eastern North Carolina this
evening.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 08/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4MeabERw-Qtn-W1RqUDx8vGierLHaDBI7ysGiggwbAT_bNWHoNIBx0BmMrrnfZiIgu91HfNbO=
lCSKaDB63kMCLSxH0s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   33917823 34087858 34257868 34627876 34887883 35017874
            35097859 35257826 35757722 36217609 36307582 35687544
            35307547 35007563 34737608 34397686 34137752 34007792
            33917823=20


=3D =3D =3D
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