Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1935
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 20:51:24

ACUS11 KWNS 102051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102050=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1935
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern South Dakota...far
southeast North Dakota...and northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 102050Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central
into eastern SD and northern NE. Severe hail and wind are the
primary threats, though a tornado or two are also possible. A WW
issuance will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A surface low is gradually deepening across central SD
as a mid-level trough approaches from the west. Ample diurnal
heating has supported temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s,
boosting MLCAPE to 3000+ J/kg (given 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates
atop 70 F surface dewpoints), which is also contributing to eroding
MLCINH. Cumulus have recently developed along a line from roughly
Hyde County, SD to Rock County, NE ahead of an eastward advancing
dryline. Current thinking is that storm initiation should take place
over the next few hours. Forecast soundings and the latest ABR VAD
shows hodographs with low-level curvature and mid-level elongation,
suggesting that supercells may be the initial mode of convection
before upscale growth into an MCS occurs. Severe hail and wind will
be the primary threats with supercells, and a tornado or two will be
possible. Should MCS upscale growth occur, then severe winds will
become the primary concern.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4_P5JvOc8LPg9l5G0VSEZxSCh-_v5HzSsgffJeAPQa9TzH4Te9K-9ZGO9tBKSqtE57Z5ttCpA=
v1OdSROLb1Bt-hND10$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42720020 45239974 46039929 46059806 45759741 45059708
            44169720 43509745 42949777 42649836 42599926 42720020=20


=3D =3D =3D
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