Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 18:40:32

AWUS01 KWNH 101840
FFGMPD
FLZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0901
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...south Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101839Z - 110000Z

Summary...A stationary sea breeze boundary parallel to the
southeast Florida coast should continue to ignite nearly
stationary thunderstorm activity through the afternoon.=20
Localized/urbanized areas could experience flash flooding through
00Z.

Discussion...Recent radar satellite indicates a sea breeze
boundary located just a few miles inland from the southeastern
Florida coast.  In the last half hour or so, convection has
deepened and begun to produce heavy rainfall over Miami/Hialeah
close to the aforementioned boundary.  The environment along and
west of that boundary is very moist (2+ inch PW values), strongly
unstable (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), weakly sheared (<10 kt storm
motions), and contains minimal convective inhibition.  Continued
surface heating should allow for additional convective development
along the boundary over sensitive areas of the Miami/Dade Metro
area through the afternoon, with the moist/buoyant environment
supporting localized areas of 2 inch/hr rain rates.

These rain rates should materialize over sensitive/urbanized land
surfaces that should support excessive runoff in a few spots.=20
Flash flooding is possible in this regime.  This risk should
persist through most of the afternoon and early evening hours,
with storms being driven mainly by strong surface heating.  Storms
should dissipate either 1) after dark or 2) once convective
overturning and cold pool development becomes widespread enough to
mitigate redevelopment due to low-level stabilization.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!444tAcyQ_O1zCbCGQ4FdfXFh_GREzgurU8N8halFz3L9eWkCl03s8UBqnJcySXKT2XI1=
d1aAIuE6oDUTheFErpw5Mi4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   27678020 26917989 25737993 25198027 25318077=20
            25868081 26668049 27618070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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