Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1931
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 14:50:54

ACUS11 KWNS 101450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101450=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-101645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1931
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023

Areas affected...southern and eastern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101450Z - 101645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will probably continue to slowly intensify through
the late morning.  The thunderstorm activity will move eastward
across southern and eastern NC through the early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an
eastward-migrating mid-level shortwave trough over the southern
Appalachians.  Area 88-D VAD data around 500 mb shows a gradual
strengthening of flow with KGSP (Greenville/Spartanburg) and KCAE
(Columbia) showing westerly 50-kt flow.  Flow will strengthen over
eastern NC over the next couple of hours both slightly elongating
and enlarging the low-level hodograph.

Surface analysis shows lower 80s degree F temperatures with
dewpoints ranging from mid 70s over the coastal plain and upper 70s
to near 80 deg dewpoints near coast.  Cloud breaks will continue to
promote gradual warming downstream of the ongoing convection over
northern SC and south-central NC.  Although it seems likely storms
will intensify through the midday hours as they move eastward into
eastern NC, it is unclear whether storms will achieve severe
thunderstorm status and pose a corresponding threat for wind damage
and perhaps a brief tornado.  As a result, the coverage of severe
thunderstorms is also uncertain.  Convective trends will continue to
be monitored.

...Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_NXY-RnASzTxVhHcc5eBawLcgJmPIjaCfbUwVzvinVAmKpw2Bon6QamGbF2MRiZSPGMFhLdFT=
eaPpY966PCTChQhR5k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34977947 35707791 35947585 35777533 35157547 33967742
            34117932 34317956 34597965 34977947=20


=3D =3D =3D
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