Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 03:51:51

AWUS01 KWNH 100351
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-100950-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0898
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 PM EDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100350Z - 100950Z

Summary...Organized convection shifting east from northern
Arkansas will continue training and pose a localized flash flood
risk over much of Tennessee overnight.

Discussion...A potent shortwave trough apparent in WV satellite
imagery entering central MO with the surface low over central AR.
An MCS is over northeast AR/the MO Bootheel with leading
convection along the western TN/KY border and more just north of
Memphis. This activity is moving east along a gradient of
1000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE with strong low-level flow and convergence
north of a warm front extending east of the low over Memphis then
dipping down into central AR. Generally rainfall estimates have
been around 1"/hr with this progressive activity. WSWly low fields
aloft are generally parallel to the MCS and surface boundary, so
training will continue which could lead to 2-3" rainfall
overnight. This activity is moving over areas that had 1-3" heavy
rain earlier today.

Continued growth of the linear segments will occur, with
backbuilding along the front into the SWly low level flow and
across the unstable air mass ahead of the front also contributing
to training and prolonged heavy rain potential. FFG thresholds are
generally 1.5"/hr, so convection should generally be limited to
the greatest training/left bookend increases in duration and
sensitive areas such as the Memphis metro. This activity will
progress east overnight and cross much of TN as well as just
outside the borders north and south, including the AL portion of
the TN Valley.=20

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-O8Rwsg6EjcxC5GKQdiVM9TB__2aZKzWn4NrKVJPF3cfNlg976DnDy8tCipspxtUm1la=
nRHCADL3kI3x4vVy4NhxFw4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...
OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36808936 36798644 36638419 36028383 35158439=20
            34708519 34128772 35069086 35509129 36099047=20
            36439032=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.