Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 01:02:16

ACUS01 KWNS 100102
SWODY1
SPC AC 100100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible from the Ozarks to the
Tennessee Valley into tonight.

....01z Update...

The main changes with the 01z update were to remove severe
probabilities from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Severe
probabilities have also been trimmed from parts of MO/IL/IN/OH where
weaker stability/shear and a worked over airmass from earlier
convection resides, resulting in low severe storm potential the
remainder of the evening.

The main severe risk from parts of OK/AR into the Mid-South/TN
Valley) remains largely unchanged. The main change to this region
was to shrink the 10 percent sig tornado probability area and
confine it to north-central/northeast AR to the MO Bootheel. This
area has the best environment to support tornado potential this
evening. The 00z RAOB from LZK shows enlarged, favorably curved
low-level hodographs with effective SRH near 250 m2/s2. Furthermore,
effective shear magnitudes greater that 45 kt and strong instability
are noted. While uncertainty is a bit higher than normal given
concerns over storm mode, this environment typically would support
tornado potential either in embedded supercells or via QLCS
tornadoes.

With time a severe MCS is expected to spread east/southeast across
the Mid-South toward the TN Valley tonight. Damaging gusts will be
the main hazard, though a couple of tornadoes and hail main also
occur.

Isolated strong storms may continue another couple of hours further
south/southwest across north TX. For more info on short term severe
potential, see MCD 1925.

...Leitman.. 08/10/2023

$$

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