Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1926
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 00:59:14

ACUS11 KWNS 100059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100058=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-100300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1926
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...far
southern Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 618...

Valid 100058Z - 100300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 618 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms continues across far
southern Missouri and will slowly spread south into north-central
AR, and a downstream watch is expected in the short term. Further
southwest, confidence is waning in the overall severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms moving southeast out of southern Missouri
are expected to spread into northern AR over the next few hours. The
downstream 00 UTC sounding from LZK sampled ample buoyancy (3000
J/kg MLCAPE) with effective bulk shear near 50 knots and 0-1 km SRH
on the order of 125 m2/s2. While a continued transition to a more
linear storm mode will likely modulate the overall tornado threat to
some degree, an increase in severe wind potential is anticipated in
the coming hours. A downstream watch will be needed to address this
concern.=20

Further to the west/southwest, early attempts at convective
initiation over eastern/central OK have failed with few attempts
noted since 00 UTC. Recent hi-res guidance has handled the evolution
of any convection (or lack thereof) very poorly, and noted trends in
satellite imagery yields diminishing confidence in convective
initiation and the realization of an otherwise very favorable
thunderstorm environment. Trends will continue to be monitored for
initiation and the emergence of a more robust severe threat.

...Moore.. 08/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8PCzdiXPcp0PD6sZoGG3uQMn1Q4xH6-ghcPDD9ZZQ4EnYQJJ7X6IfB0hhQVF1QkwQ163hHvoh=
Wvq3POzXO8s0CKGPkY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34839569 36639425 36839313 36729220 36569149 36269107
            35949109 35579161 34509316 34439347 34679549 34839569=20


=3D =3D =3D
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