Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1925
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 10 2023 00:36:43

ACUS11 KWNS 100036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100035=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...North Texas to far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619...

Valid 100035Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe winds continues across north Texas
into far southern Oklahoma. However, this threat will gradually
diminish heading into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, initial thunderstorms
developing along a surface trough have shown signs of weakening with
an average lifespan of around 1-2 hours. Strong winds up to 56 mph
have been reported as these storms collapsed, but a few instances of
wind damage have been noted. While the initial cells continue to
weaken, additional cells are developing along the boundary with
signs of steady intensification per GOES IR imagery and lightning
trends. It remains unclear how many additional cells will develop,
but ongoing/developing storms will slowly migrate east where
dewpoint depressions are still 40-50 F, indicating that low-level
thermodynamic profiles remain conducive for strong to severe
downburst winds. This threat will slowly wane heading into the late
evening hours as nocturnal cooling steadily increasing low-level
inhibition. This will relegate the potential for damaging/severe
downburst winds to the strongest/tallest cells that may have
sufficient precipitation loading and evaporative cooling to punch
through the low-level stable layer.

...Moore.. 08/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!61EaSQbT7h5Ob6ZLBXPrG1rillGGavEJWuT8fquZhxSHG55e8FojT_mRdvdaJCHOTH2tWkc4O=
CYfdC-F83TfV_ESR04$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33289605 33109643 32939708 32879782 33039821 33429828
            33669800 34239642 34169612 34049576 33699578 33289605=20


=3D =3D =3D
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