Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1922
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 22:20:42

ACUS11 KWNS 092220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092220=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...The Red River Valley region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092220Z - 100015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Red River Valley will
pose a risk for severe winds over the next several hours. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Robust convective initiation is underway along a
surface trough draped from eastern OK into north/northwest TX. 12
UTC soundings from OUN and FWD sampled high PWAT values generally
near 1.75 inches, but recent surface observations are showing high
dewpoint depressions on the order of 40-50 F. This suggests that the
low-level thermodynamic environment is very deeply mixed and should
support accelerating downdrafts. A mix of wet/dry downbursts appear
possible with an attendant risk for severe winds. Trends will be
monitored, and watch issuance is possible if it becomes evident the
severe threat will be sufficiently widespread and persistent.

...Moore/Thompson.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_U3_uNzKO0G94hSv886rCrErw4UYSwXabJwn2V6ODj7HqXpjjUGN0T-S9No2NKjsu7j6QkvbW=
Y5B0QRG7vFnvjxw_To$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33159767 32589859 32239920 32089977 32310009 32679983
            33419888 33959814 34249771 34629699 34709622 34639533
            34019517 33439542 33289645 33159767=20


=3D =3D =3D
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