Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1921
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 21:00:13

ACUS11 KWNS 092100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092059=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-092330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Montana...southern
North Dakota...northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092059Z - 092330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail or wind may occur later
this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat should remain
isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, along with sparse areas of convective
initiation, are underway ahead of a diffuse trailing cold front from
extreme eastern MT, eastward along the SD/ND border. Ample heating
has mixed the boundary layer, with observed upper 70s/low 80s F
temperatures amid low 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8.5+ C/km
boundary-layer lapse rates (20Z mesoanalysis). Given the dry
boundary layer, RAP forecast soundings depict the 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
(currently in place) distributed in tall/skinny profiles, though
unidirectional speed shear is in place. As such, a few multicells or
transient supercells may become sustained and support an instance or
two of severe hail/wind. Since the severe threat should be sparse, a
WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_oF9Uz_MjQaFjishONTR2y6MGO1Ls19moBdXPF2S-8tqCHPk5yB2g0Zy6lLt0gLWwpNLlxirG=
jcYk7ZUYQ6XsBr0FVg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47890494 47620358 46419934 46079728 45589689 45069696
            44809822 44880039 45290175 46080364 46640481 47450509
            47890494=20


=3D =3D =3D
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