Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1918
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 20:21:41

ACUS11 KWNS 092021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092021=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Far southeast Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 092021Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Though uncertainty remains, a watch is likely this
afternoon for parts northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri and
northwest Arkansas. Storms will be capable of large to very large
(up to 2 inches) hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less
certain, though a tornado or two could occur with the strongest
supercells.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough continues to progress
south-southeastward through central Kansas on water vapor imagery.
This feature will aid in convective development along the cold front
from north-central Oklahoma into central Missouri. Cumulus have been
steadily deepening in far southeast Kansas over the last hour. With
continued heating and increasing mid-level ascent, storms will form
later this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty in the forecast
is the substantial amounts of warm advection precipitation and cloud
cover that have continued into the afternoon in Missouri and
Arkansas. However, an relatively cloud free zone has developed in
the vicinity of the OK/KS/MO border. Temperatures in northeast
Oklahoma have risen into the upper 80s F. The 19Z observed SGF
sounding also shows that the low-level thermodynamic profile has not
been prohibitively affected by earlier convection, particularly when
modified with nearby surface observations.

Effective shear is strong (45-50 kts). Storms that do develop will
be initially supercellular. The duration of a discrete storm mode is
uncertain given the nearly boundary-parallel shear vectors and the
forcing from the trough. Large to very large hail (up to 2 inches)
and damaging wind gusts would be possible with supercell storms. The
tornado threat is less certain this far west. 850 mb flow will
increase later this evening, but it will be farther east and storm
mode will probably be more linear by that time. A watch is likely
this afternoon.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4IqUSNaJDWc_fv_w_rHdMG2ru_v_Pb9mtyK1Oi8CC2lmjqU8pVWYHtGEjFdcXkx-jWNuaOD2R=
bBPNFnC3XoUMezRbEg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35149644 35809628 36529616 36819610 36889599 37139572
            37259542 37329473 37349434 37229354 37169289 36889240
            36609230 36209269 35999295 35209452 35119508 34679585
            34619640 35149644=20


=3D =3D =3D
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