Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 19:12:42

ACUS11 KWNS 091912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091912=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central Arkansas...southwest
Tennessee...northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091912Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow zone near an effective warm front has conditional
potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should storms develop.
Uncertainty is high. A watch is possible depending on convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have risen into the low 90s F in northwest
Mississippi, just south of an effective warm front. Cumulus
development has been increasing just southwest of Memphis on visible
satellite as well. Farther west, into central Arkansas, cumulus has
also developed south of thicker cloud cover, but vertical
development has been minimal so far. While ongoing warm advection
precipitation and associated cloud cover has continued to complicate
the forecast this afternoon. However, observational trends do
suggest that these areas would be favorable for tornadoes and
damaging winds should storms develop and intensify. Storm initiation
appears most likely in far east-central Arkansas into far northwest
Mississippi with more uncertain potential farther west. A watch is
possible.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_40FUqgPrnkSJtSJr0UPojHJtE-YbF31btPrQKPOdTka5yQIbT8zOKZ5Ko5yapzEsA1gObBEs=
3jfotHZeMOVDj6ilXE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34488946 34269060 34219192 34329288 34429309 34629309
            35169214 35239139 35229067 35159004 35058971 34848950
            34638944 34488946=20


=3D =3D =3D
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