Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 08:56:38

ACUS48 KWNS 090856
SWOD48
SPC AC 090855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is forecast to remain in place over the southern
Plains and Southeast States through the weekend and into the middle
of next week. A series of shortwave troughs will likely traverse a
belt of stronger mid-level flow extending from the northern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The first shortwave is
expected to move quickly through the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
and Northeast on D4/Saturday. Some severe thunderstorms appear
possible ahead of this wave from the Middle/Upper OH Valley into the
Northeast/New England. However, uncertainty regarding the speed of
the shortwave (and associated surface features) introduces
uncertainty regarding the most likely location for severe and
precludes introducing any areas.

Another shortwave is expected to move from the northern Plains into
the OH/TN Valley and continue through the Mid-Atlantic from
D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Guidance has shown notable variability
with the evolution of this second shortwave, with recent runs of the
ECMWF and Canadian trending deeper and slower. Given the strength of
the mid-level flow associated with this system, some severe appears
likely. Highest confidence in severe is currently over IA and
vicinity on D5/Sunday as the leading edge of the approaching
shortwave interacts with the moist and unstable airmass expected to
be in place. Thereafter, differences in timing within the guidance,
plus likely influential effects from the evolution of the preceding
thunderstorms limits predictability on D6/Monday and D7/Tuesday.

...Mosier.. 08/09/2023

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