Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 07:47:39

AWUS01 KWNH 090747
FFGMPD
KSZ000-091346-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0894
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090746Z - 091346Z

Summary...An increasing low level jet will allow expanding
coverage to slow-moving thunderstorms over Kansas through the rest
of the overnight. Rain rates of 2+ inch/hr rain rates are expected
to become more common, which results in an isolated flash flood
risk.

Discussion...Organizing activity that tracked from eastern CO over
western KS will continue shifting east across the rest of KS
overnight as a low-level jet extending up the southern Plains
provides increased moisture to an unstable environment. PWs of
1.75"+ in OK will continue to advect north to central KS and
pooling may allow PWs to hit 2" which is +1.5 sigma from normal.
An instability axis of around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE will persist
overnight and a westerly 25kt 850-300mb mean wind will keep
activity redeveloping as it shifts east, continuing the repeating
storm threat.

The limiting factor in this case in progressively drier antecedent
conditions east across KS from a recent dry spell (which has
exacerbated ongoing extreme drought conditions for much of central
and eastern KS. FFG increases from under 2"/hr where activity is
over central KS (as of 0730Z) to around 2.5"/hr over the Flint
Hills. However, the increasing coverage of 2"/hr rates and
expectation for repeating cells could bring rainfall totals of
2-4" which is progged by the 06Z HRRR. Flash flooding is
considered possible into the mid-morning.

This activity is in advance of a potent shortwave trough over the
CO/WY border. Further development immediately ahead of this wave
over eastern CO and western KS will be monitored as that area had
repeating heavy thunderstorms this past evening and is susceptible
to flash flooding.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!81jkM9XuISCpQAwiipPgARihlXdnfwgFwFagEimFyOF42DYWfzTUOertS9KbL2X5F2Es=
fviIXMFcyiPdag-X14I-diA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39089634 38919503 37469504 37319607 37569865=20
            37999967 38819937 39029821=20

=3D =3D =3D
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