Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1913
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 07:38:07

ACUS11 KWNS 090738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090737=20
KSZ000-090930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/southern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

Valid 090737Z - 090930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and strong/severe gusts may
persist overnight.

DISCUSSION...At 0730 UTC, elevated supercells are gradually evolving
into a larger-scale storm cluster across west-central KS. Moderate
elevated buoyancy and effective shear of around 40 kt will continue
to support a threat of elevated supercells with large hail in the
short term, though a continued increase in storm coverage and a
tendency toward more of a cluster or linear mode is expected with
time as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region.=20

Some increase in strong/severe gust potential is expected as upscale
growth occurs and spreads east-southeastward, though this threat may
tend to remain rather isolated with rather strong low-level
stability and MLCINH across the region. Additional development is
possible south and east of the ongoing convection within the
low-level warm advection regime. This new development could briefly
pose a large-hail threat before merging into the growing convective
system.=20

Some severe threat could spread east-southeast of the current
boundary of WW 616. Local watch expansion may need to be considered
based on short-term trends, but with the threat potentially
remaining rather isolated, new downstream watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely.

...Dean/Grams.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!58WRgqrnTTqadcApR9HGxGV_chYxTJg_yOfMKGy9JlkHYHtS6gTrM7jaRTuJWMEgboGQj5T8T=
yqum6WvpBw4eWqRBMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38790007 38789788 38719707 38649637 38289593 37879560
            37079575 37159764 37749982 38209998 38790007=20


=3D =3D =3D
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