Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1912
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 09 2023 06:00:37

ACUS11 KWNS 090600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090600=20
OKZ000-090800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1912
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...West-central/southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090600Z - 090800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe gusts may spread eastward
overnight. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A compact storm cluster is moving across west-central
and southwest OK at 06 UTC, with measured OK Mesonet severe gusts of
62 mph recently noted at Elk City, and 68 mph at Hobart. While
MLCINH remains strong and will only become more stout with time and
eastward extent, a strong low-level jet (as noted on the FDR and TLX
VWPs) may continue to sustain convection as it moves into an axis of
rich moisture at around the 850 mb level. Severe gusts will continue
to be possible in the short term as the cluster moves through a
region where temperatures are still in the low 80s F.=20

With time, storm intensity and the threat for severe gusts should
begin to wane as the cluster encounters greater low-level stability,
and the low-level jet and related ascent becomes focused north of
the region into KS. With the spatial and temporal extent of the
threat expected to remain somewhat limited, watch issuance is
unlikely.

...Dean/Grams.. 08/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9yMEC8qOAVxBp8dQ3TZ56JPTw64bf2H2ntKLpLmQyEZ9QUHDScxu9c_nPriLg7phlWsvEQ8H9=
o1vIB4d_MtvD5BdysE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509934 35809827 35839775 34899761 34679868 34629908
            34699930 34889933 35109928 35509934=20


=3D =3D =3D
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