Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1909
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 20:43:31

ACUS11 KWNS 082043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082042=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Minnesota into extreme
northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082042Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe wind/hail may accompany the
stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multicell/transient supercells have gradually been
increasing in number and intensity across northern MN over the past
few hours. NLDN shows an increase in the frequency of lightning
flashes and MRMS mosaic radar depicts 30 dBZ echo tops reaching 50
kft, with corresponding MESH values exceeding 1 inch in diameter for
some of the strongest storms. RAP forecast soundings and the low 50s
F observed surface dewpoints suggest that a dry, mixed boundary
layer is in place. When also considering the modest (i.e. 6.5-7
C/km) mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy should remain marginal (i.e.
around 1000 J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE). Nonetheless, some of the
stronger updrafts may benefit from the 30+ kts of effective bulk
(speed-driven) shear and cooler mid-level temperatures to support an
instance or two of severe hail. Adequate evaporative cooling of
precipitation within the dry boundary layer may also foster a severe
gust or two. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41q_VGmtG-tT6jU1ZCnkrzNcNd85F8E0y0Ror0sFdfBjBej-gLy-Ts1mBT1pECvy_udld3-j0=
VjpRC0uCFALfD-1qH8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46949675 47939609 48669516 48789410 48589272 48339139
            48089124 47559107 46969108 46389152 46109195 46039291
            46299500 46949675=20


=3D =3D =3D
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