Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1907
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 19:24:33

ACUS11 KWNS 081924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081924=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southeast Wyoming...Southwest
Nebraska...Northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081924Z - 082130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity
within the Higher terrain of northeast Colorado and southeast
Wyoming. Additional development is possible along a stationary
boundary in the High Plains. Large/very-large (2-3.5 inches) hail,
severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph), and a tornado or two are possible.
A watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A potent upper-level low is evident on water vapor
imagery across eastern Idaho/western Wyoming. This feature appears
to be aiding in convective development from the Laramie Range into
the Front Range farther south. This initial convection has been
relatively short-lived as temperatures have remained cool near the
terrain and inhibition has consequently been slow to erode. A
stationary boundary is draped across the High Plains from southeast
Wyoming into northeast Colorado and western Kansas.

Greater coverage of storms and an eventual increase in intensity is
most likely to emanate from the higher terrain -- a solution that
all CAM guidance seems to agree upon. However, a local breach in the
cap is possible along the boundary. Storms that are able to initiate
here would be supercells capable of large to very-large (2-3.5
inches) hail and severe wind gusts. The tornado threat will be
maximized with discrete storms along the boundary. A greater wind
threat will exist with any clustering/MCS that develops, whether
within the terrain to the west or along the boundary to the east.
Some of these wind gusts could exceed 75 mph.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 08/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-oBERZ_OLk0XwpLOV74l09idqUgpJFBMs72AtwDSpSIIWSbVvbq6cCAE9xulIDTEwMpiybBKo=
qrcelHpwX_OBSFebdo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39780458 40530486 41320485 41570461 41720385 41650233
            41190151 40290105 39410101 38940120 38650204 38700248
            38920343 39780458=20


=3D =3D =3D
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