Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1906
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 18:02:03

ACUS11 KWNS 081801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081801=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1906
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Mississippi...central
and southern Alabama...far western Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081801Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts is increasing across portions
of the Southeast. Convective trends are being monitored for the need
of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The remnants of a decaying MCS continues to progress
east across the Southeast states as diurnal heating ahead of a
diminishing cold pool is supporting surface temperatures to warm
over 90 F. Mid to upper 70s F dewpoints are contributing to 5000
J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE amid 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow and
corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. The extreme
buoyancy will support water-loaded downdrafts and associated
damaging gusts with the stronger pulse-cellular storms. If cold
pools can congeal and rejuvenate the decaying MCS, a more organized
damaging gust threat may ensue. Convective trends are being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance
pending signs of more robust organization.

...Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TNMFUgb-u_9Vv1zA90xDrM20TVpRKAP26XgWlVYjCaUroxmVkgEpGzQeAFh2_bUprSb9IhNn=
zTdRY1PDeVIERMZthA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31068841 31228895 31708953 32018931 32778796 33068682
            32858490 32628437 32158413 31508416 31038459 30828595
            31068841=20


=3D =3D =3D
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