Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 17:33:34 ACUS02 KWNS 081733 SWODY2 SPC AC 081731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity. ....Synopsis... A mid-level short wave trough, embedded in a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly flow across the central and eastern U.S., will advance steadily east-southeastward, crossing the Mid Mississippi Valley overnight. A belt of enhanced flow in the lower and middle troposphere (40 to 60 kt at mid levels) will spread across the Ozarks through the day, and across the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the evening and overnight. At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a weak low initially progged over eastern Kansas -- is forecast to shift eastward into the Ozarks and southeastern Oklahoma through the day, and then across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley overnight. By the end of the period, the front should extend from a low over the Ohio vicinity west-southwestward to North Texas. ....Eastern portions of KS/OK eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-South/Southeast... Expectations remain that fairly widespread convection will be ongoing at the start of the period across eastern Kansas and Missouri, which should shift eastward through the day into/across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Very limited/local severe risk may be ongoing early, and should increase through the day as the airmass ahead of the convection destabilizes. Locally damaging winds should be the primary severe risk assuming storms intensify as expected, along with potential for hail and a tornado or two. Meanwhile, a second round of convection is forecast to develop in the recovering airmass across the Ozarks vicinity ahead of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening, with timing and initial intensity of the convection modulated by prior storms and any lingering cloud cover. Eventually, storms should intensify and grow upscale into one or more clusters -- aided by a 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet. At this time, it appears that overall risk for damaging winds -- potential from two separate rounds of storms -- warrants upgrade to ENH risk/30% wind probability across parts of the Mid Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, which would continue well into the evening hours. ...Goss.. 08/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .