Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 13:17:19

AWUS01 KWNH 081317
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-081800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0891
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
916 AM EDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Southern AR...Far Northeast LA...Central
MS...Western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081315Z - 081800Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to drop
down to the southeast through this morning and the early afternoon
hours and may produce some additional instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a rather expansive
complex of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to drop down
to the southeast across the Lower MS Valley. The MCS as a whole
continues to support some very cold cloud tops and is associated
with shortwave energy traversing the north side of the subtropical
ridge over the southern Plains.

A rather well-defined quasi-stationary front is situated from near
the Arklatex eastward across the Gulf Coast states, and this is
where a strong instability gradient is noted. The convection is
well rooted within the elevated instability pool north of this
front where MUCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg are
focused.

Given the level of moisture convergence still focused along and
north of the front in an elevated fashion, and the degree of
instability, the shortwave energy that is dropping gradually down
to the southeast should still be able to foster an axis of
sustainable convection from areas of southern AR down through
central MS and eventually into areas of western AL.

Some localized repeating of convection will continue to favor
concerns for excessive rainfall totals and thus instances of flash
flooding. Rainfall rates with the stronger convective cores will
continue to be upwards of 2 inches/hour, and some additional storm
totals going through early afternoon may reach 3 to 4 inches. This
is generally consistent with the 06Z HREF guidance and recent runs
of the HRRR.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4dKj3o42CxYpSj07KJmIQubRBoSnp7k7FwQh9aMRSKWCcGke4N4XpcQ4gORWi2CCQZH6=
gJqPEWY-m5nmarbiUKWIMYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LZK...MEG...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34279310 34109151 33878959 33508747 32608666=20
            31848759 32239071 33099370 33589447 34189426=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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