Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 12:41:29 ACUS11 KWNS 081241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081240=20 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-081445- Mesoscale Discussion 1905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Areas affected...ArkLaMiss vicinity into extreme western AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612... Valid 081240Z - 081445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe hail/wind threat will continue in the short term. The damaging-wind threat may increase later this morning. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing this morning from southeast OK into southern AR and western MS. 1-inch hail was earlier reported in southeast OK, but otherwise storms have largely been subsevere over the last few hours, with measured gusts generally in the 30-40 kt range. The environment remains favorable for organized elevated convection, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and moderate effective shear (as noted in the 12Z JAN/SHV soundings). However, the tendency for a cluster or linear mode will limit the hail threat, while the elevated nature of the ongoing storms will limit damaging-wind potential in the short term.=20 Later this morning, downstream diurnal heating and destabilization may support increasing damaging-wind potential, if some combination of the ongoing clusters can persist and become rooted closer to the surface. The ongoing cluster across southern AR may be best positioned for later intensification, since there will be greater time for downstream destabilization, and, with a continued southeast propagation, it will no longer follow in the immediate wake of the leading cluster across MS. However, the strongest surface pressure perturbation is noted across west-central AR with the trailing storm cluster, and some uptick could occur if this feature is able to catch up to downstream convection or eventually impinge on the effective warm sector.=20 Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible as the damaging-wind threat increases later this morning, though timing remains uncertain. WW 612 may be allowed to expire, unless there is a notable short-term uptick in storm organization prior to the 13 UTC expiration time. ...Dean/Grams.. 08/08/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58huyC99BLAvIR2ZMXJrBW-O6z-SJf460ZsSTKS3U9Fymocv21zrU8tRdrWGr0p8-fN11bie4= ZYO0ov6WHNqGBl7Ni8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 32189046 33319336 33699323 34009234 33929137 33739041 33388893 33188812 32978800 32578809 32288831 32178850 32158891 32128957 32189046=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .