Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1904 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 08:29:28 ACUS11 KWNS 080829 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080828=20 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081000- Mesoscale Discussion 1904 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Areas affected...Central/southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612... Valid 080828Z - 081000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for hail and isolated severe gusts continues in and near WW 612. Some threat may eventually spread into the ArkLaMiss vicinity, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Convection has become widespread from northwest/north-central OK into southeast OK/southwest AR. Measured severe gusts were noted earlier across northern OK, while several storms across southeast OK into southwest AR have potentially produced severe hail, based on MRMS estimates. The environment remains conditionally favorable for elevated supercells with large hail, though convective mode has become increasingly complex due to widespread storm development. Cells that are able to remain semi-discrete with minimal interference will continue to pose a severe-hail threat overnight.=20 With widespread convection expected to continue within a favorable environment, some organized upscale growth is possible with time. However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing of any such evolution. The cluster moving across northwest/north-central OK has the strongest surface pressure perturbation (based on OK Mesonet obs), but storms have generally weakened across this area over the last hour, and this trend may continue given the widespread downstream convection. Ongoing convection across eastern OK/western AR may be more likely to grow upscale and spread southeastward later this morning. In either case, some severe potential may eventually spread into the ArkLaMiss region, though timing is uncertain. ...Dean/Grams.. 08/08/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lesZ3TYYrs-wm3NeLu4Hl26kzVz_dyfa_cjQV_3tOoGsMWzF_LIcdbhhzrjlbcVbSjgMfgsy= r2vsz_07Y4oKUL2XcA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35979931 36159764 35869570 34499301 33959214 33469146 32939124 32699156 32679220 33499424 34869685 35369858 35409942 35979931=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .