Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 07:10:45

AWUS01 KWNH 080710
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-081300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0889
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma through Central Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080708Z - 081300Z

SUMMARY...Continued development of heavy and repeating
thunderstorms brings scattered flash flooding from central
Oklahoma to central Arkansas though mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...Slow moving, low level jet fed activity over central
OK into western AR will continue to develop as an MCS over
northern OK shifts southeast, causing repeating cells. 30kt Sly
low level flow over a surface front over northern TX will
reinforcing moisture pooling with PW of 2 to 2.25" which is +2
sigma over normal. Axis of ample instability is coincident with
this moisture pool with widespread development on the north side
of an WNW-ESE instability gradient where MUCAPE generally ranges
1000 to 3000 J/kg over eastern OK into western AR. Rain rates of
1.5 to 2.5"/hr will continue to expand in coverage generally east
from the OKC metro to Hot Springs. Organized activity from KS, now
over northern OK, will continue producing 1.5"/hr rates as it
shifts southeast in 30kt westerly deep layer flow with southerly
propagation.

Rainfall yesterday morning has made for lower FFG, generally
around 2"/hr over northeast OK into central AR with higher FFG
where it has been drier farther south. Given repeating/merging
cells developing in their direction of motion and then the
organized activity shifting over the same areas (areas with
somewhat wet antecedent soil conditions), the potential for 2 to
4" over the next few hours is likely and could cause scattered
coverage of flash flooding.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9IMzVO25pmN8lHLGXHCnoguDhEtUKL_jZviMkSmlT5HwJ8F0EM4w2MenlUjklPPByIO_=
v2L8U95IwVYu1wpVXEJ_8Yw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36459791 36429654 35529430 34889198 33489142=20
            33459260 34049466 35079753 35649816 36239864=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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