Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1903
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 06:07:57

ACUS11 KWNS 080607
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080607=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Parts of OK into the ArkLaTex region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 080607Z - 080800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and severe gusts will
persist overnight. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 06 UTC, a long-lived storm cluster is moving into
northern OK from southern KS, while new development of vigorous
convection has occurred over southeast OK. Steep midlevel lapse
rates (as noted on the 00Z OUN sounding and short-term forecast
soundings) and rich moisture in the 850-700 mb layer are supporting
MUCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range from central OK toward the
ArkLaTex. Meanwhile, moderate midlevel westerlies are supporting
effective shear in excess of 40 kt, with long, straight hodographs
and strong anvil-level flow. These factors are conditionally
supportive of elevated supercells with large to very large hail.=20

Ongoing convection will likely be sustained for several hours within
a low-level warm advection regime. However, evolution of convection
early this morning remains somewhat uncertain. The best chance for
elevated supercells appears to be from southeast OK into southwest
AR, where a notable hail threat could evolve. The cluster across
northern OK may also intensify as it moves into a region of greater
elevated buoyancy, posing at least an isolated hail and severe gust
threat. Depending on short-term trends, watch issuance is possible
for parts of the region.

...Dean/Grams.. 08/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-RYHQCedpGrn2UYR1NZGCuwFaNmKqkAnWPcjInfaRBjvJota63X2PmjJSw8x2Jxot3H6e-emF=
6JPhpwoo6rPuGB0tOY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36769944 36359634 35269420 34579287 34169236 33039402
            34089644 34789802 34939816 35819919 36549962 36769944=20


=3D =3D =3D
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