Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 05:43:27 ACUS02 KWNS 080543 SWODY2 SPC AC 080542 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinity. ....Eastern OK/KS to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A seasonally strong shortwave midlevel trough over the central Plains early Wednesday will shift east to the Mid-MS Valley by Thursday morning. As this occurs, a band of enhanced westerly 500 mb flow around 40-60 kt will overspread the Ozarks to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valley region. An MCV/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima is expected to move across the Lower OH/TN Valley from eastern KS/OK/MO during the day. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will develop south and east across the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming oriented from central Lower MI to central MO and north TX by Thursday morning. Mid 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints will be common across the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valley region. However, early day convection/cloud cover may limit destabilization across portions of the area. Much of current forecast guidance shows quite a bit of convection ongoing Wednesday morning across eastern KS into MO and shifting east/southeast through midday/early afternoon. Some of this activity could become severe, posing a damaging wind and tornado risk. However, this is uncertain and depends on exactly where convection is located in the morning, how quickly it shifts east and how much downstream destabilization is able to occur ahead of any ongoing morning MCS. If destabilization can occur, moderate vertical shear will support organized clusters/linear segments into parts of the Lower OH/TN Valley vicinity during the day. Another round of convection may develop in the recovering airmass across MO/AR along a pre-frontal trough by late afternoon or early evening. Another MCS could develop, aided by a 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet across the Mid-South region during the evening. An accompanying damaging wind and tornado risk may shift east/southeast across MO/AR into TN and vicinity. Given so much uncertainty tied to evolution of morning convection and its impact on airmass destabilization, recovery, etc., a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) will be maintained with the initial Day 2 outlook. However, deep boundary-layer moisture and seasonally strong deep-layer flow are sufficient to support a greater probability risk depending on evolution of mesoscale details. This may result in outlook upgrades in subsequent forecasts. ...Leitman.. 08/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .