Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 08 2023 04:29:46

AWUS01 KWNH 080429
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0888
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1229 AM EDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Areas affected...Adirondacks and Interior New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080425Z - 081000Z

SUMMARY...Convergence of training storms and an MCV lifting from
the Hudson Valley pose localized flash flooding threat overnight
for the Adirondacks and interior New England.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough now north of Lake Ontario is
directing anomalous moisture through the Northeast and an MCV
lifting north over the Hudson Valley will continue to focus
activity overnight to its north.

PWs around 1.8" are 2.5 to 3 sigma above normal for northern NY
and Interior New England. This extreme moisture is being fed by 25
to 30kt Sly flow. Instability has waned through the evening and
MUCAPE is generally less than 500 J/kg. However, lift from the MCV
and warm air advection should still allow rainfall of up to
1.5"/hr to persist as activity shifts north overnight.

Low FFG, generally 1.5" or less per hour, persists over the
Adirondacks and Vermont which are coming off a historically wet
July and remain sensitive. Flash flooding is possible rest of the
overnight.

Further heavy rain late tonight is possible farther east per 00Z
HREF CAM guidance which will be monitored for further MPD
issuance.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-HQvLTzhyqgAPYd7qDMO-HH73vLQlYqFogYzxOyzczolAq5rCz2OuVs9X2FKzxh6UPAL=
FePOIhcQ-Q-icWqIcuuLII8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45237241 45077088 42667225 42977427 43927480=20
            45017463 45197363=20

=3D =3D =3D
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