Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1898
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 23:27:55

ACUS11 KWNS 072327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072327=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-080130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607...

Valid 072327Z - 080130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue into the evening
hours as thunderstorm clusters move east to the Atlantic coast.
Downstream watch issuance is likely to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing ahead of the primary convective line across
northern GA/SC have begun to consolidate into a semi-organized line.
This new line continues to transition to becoming the leading
squall, which should result in the degradation of convection to the
west as it ingests cold-pool air. However, the air mass ahead of the
leading line remains very unstable with MLCAPE estimates upwards of
3500-4000 J/kg to the Atlantic coast, per recent RAP forecast
soundings and mesoanalysis. While deep-layer shear remains meager,
the abundant buoyancy and PWAT values near 2.0 inches will continue
to support robust, though perhaps transient, updrafts. Associated
wet downbursts will pose a damaging-wind threat through the early
evening hours, and a downstream watch will likely be needed to
address this concern.

...Moore.. 08/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8njPPDiMI7qxFYHYRwtCCvBnE4qX6GGNC1GQvS6cPWOVMbAtsUYKv5a7o_Cwvu2-pWs-yqtdq=
AwYtvcS_apJlucRkiU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32738347 32848262 33008164 33498093 33718028 33527975
            33277931 32967925 32507990 32028056 31858122 31788213
            31898287 32188354 32368367 32508371 32738347=20


=3D =3D =3D
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