Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 07 2023 23:06:40

AWUS01 KWNH 072306
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0885
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
705 PM EDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 072305Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Repeating cells w/mergers pose highly focused flash
flooding risk over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um and Visible loop show many
strong/severe thunderstorm signatures over NW KS.  SPC MPD and RAP
profiles support large hail but modest moisture flux convergence
will allow for accompanying moderate to heavy rainfall.  A fast
moving shortwave over SE WY along with some modest divergence
aloft is providing broad scale ascent across a subtle SE to NW
warm frontal zone.  CIRA LPW and VWP shows strong low level
response to winds in the area transporting sfc to 700mb air along
30-35kts due north across W KS.  Aloft 700-300mb an pocket of
enhanced moisture results in a localized total PWat maximum of
about 1.3-1.5".   Strong 60-65 effective bulk shear supports
stronger rotating updrafts, which should favorably turn and slow
cell motions from the deeper westerly steering flow into stronger
moisture flux as well.=20

It is the orientation and proximity of the stronger updrafts to
each other that is likely to result in training/repeating storm
tracks acros far NW KS with pre-cursory super-cells ahead of more
arched line at the nose of the height-falls/DPVA.  Given strength
of moisture convergence as well as 30-60 degrees of low level
confluence around the boundary will allow for heavy rainfall up to
1.5-2"/hr to accompany the larger hail.  Given repeating/merging
cells the potential for a spot or two of 2.5-3.5" over the next
few hours rises the potential for localized flash flooding
conditions, especially given recent antecedent conditions in the
region lowering FFG just below or at 2" in 1-3hr time period.=20
Given this flash flooding is considered likely.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5-4aSdE_SUY3t_DwvY5UCK7_8MTs0LlGTQJlEqlUetMWHhCPVKsnxnY4fq7yq3cL2pA8=
v3Bzvhso1Mh8iToMeqZ6tKA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40310196 40140000 38929918 38269943 38190054=20
            38420146 39220216 39940233=20

=3D =3D =3D
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